【禁闻】中国面临养老金〝定时炸弹〞
中国养老金体系面临严重资金不足的前景。大陆媒体最新数据显示，与工资增长相比，躺在银行账户〝睡大觉〞的养老金，20年损失1.3万亿元。研究人员把中国养老金问题称作是中国面临的一颗〝定时炸弹〞。
大陆三年前曾掀起一场关于养老金投资体制改革的〝全民讨论〞，但投资方案至今还没有出台。中共人力资源和社会保障部最新数据显示，截至去年底，中国社会保险基金累计资产总额已达4.77万亿元，占当年GDP高达8.3% 。
但是绝大部分基金作为财政专户存款躺在银行里〝睡大觉〞，购买国债和委托投资的合计仅为711亿元，还不到资产总额的零头。
中国社科院世界社会保障中心主任郑秉文分析，如果政府更好地管理这类资金，过去20年中国的养老金就会多增加数十亿元。
郑秉文测算养老保险在过去20年来的损失量，如果以通胀率(CPI)作为基准，贬值将近千亿元；如果以社会平均工资增长率作为参照，福利损失将高达1.3万亿元。
旅美中国社会问题研究人士张健：〝养老金的制度就是一个变相的盘剥，因为中国当时制定养老金制度的时候，它只是要急于甩开众多国企这些职工的历史负担，它觉得把这些包袱甩掉之后，它先推出个养老金制度，但它在养老金制度它并没有参照国际上的这样一个标准，是中共自己闭门造出来的。〞
旅美中国社会问题研究人士张健分析，这套制度一出台就存在着重大的隐患，由于不透明，不公正和官员贪腐，导致养老金的缺口巨大，不仅加重了纳税人的负担，更侵蚀了未来基本养老保险制度的支付能力。
张健：〝每个人都知道养老金是一个黑洞，但是这里面的水到底有多深，它吸干了多少纳税人的工资，现在根本不得而知，在社会统筹帐户里边，对养老金这笔钱没有一个统一的管理。各个省市的财政大量挪用养老金的行为，导致乱投资，导致养老金的窟窿越来越大，然后靠拆东墙被西墙的方式 ，把养老金帐让它先持平。〞
张健说，在这个过程中，养老金已经产生了很大的问题，导致已经在社保体系存入资金的众多民众，面临无法领取退休金的风险。
根据〝经济管理出版社〞2011-2014 年出版的《中国养老金发展报告》，去年年底，大陆个人养老金账户〝空账〞高达30955亿元，超过了当年城镇职工养老保险基金的累计结余。根据中国社科院金融所教授李扬去年3月的测算，到2023年，城镇企业职工基本养老保险就将出现〝收不抵支〞，2029年累计结余将消耗殆尽，2050年累计缺口将达802万亿元。
面对中国养老金的巨大缺口 ，中共当局开始严格限制社保基金的投资方向。中国财政部最近发布声明，对地方政府提出告诫，指出除了最保守的资产，地方社保基金不能投资其他任何产品。
由于当局的限制，以及巨大的基本养老金的潜在损失，郑秉文说，中国社保基金投资不足的本质，对地方政府来说就像一颗〝定时炸弹〞。
旅美经济评论家马杰森：〝这个肯定是中共面临的定时炸弹之一。中共面临的定时炸弹非常多，这是其中之一，当然中共肯定也没有一个长远性计划，可能也都是属于那种做一天和尚，撞一天钟的状态。很多官员不也都是裸官嘛，把家人都送到国外去了吗？！〞
马杰森指出，中国很多问题归根结底都是目前这个执政党的问题，因为它本身有着无限的权力，无限的贪欲，它不管制定什么，都是从利己出发，变相欺骗、盘剥老百姓。
中国正面临人口老龄化的前景，政府官员已经强烈暗示可能会提高退休年龄。另一方面，去年一份由清华大学制定的〝中国养老体制改革备选方案〞提出，从明年开始逐步延迟领取养老金，到2030年，实现普通职工和居民65岁领取养老金。
采访/朱智善 编辑/李韵 后制/肖颜
Research Says China’s National Pension Is A Time Bomb
China’s pension system is faced with a major shortfall.
Mainland media reports that national pension funds
are sleeping at banks as deposits
and have lost 1.3 trillion yuan in the past 20 years.
A researcher regards China’s pension funds
a ‘time bomb’ for local governments.
Since a national debate on pension investment three years ago,
no investment program has yet been introduced.
The latest Human Resources and Social Security Ministry data
showed that as of last year, the total social insurance fund
has reached 4.77 trillion yuan,
accounting for as much as 8.3% of GDP.
But the vast majority of funds ‘sleep’ in the bank as deposits.
Only 71.1 billion, or 1.5% of the funds has been put
into national bonds or investment.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zheng Bingwen
analyzed, if the government had managed such funds better,
it could have made billions more over the past two decades.
Zheng Bingwen’s research showed, taking the Consumer Price
Index (CPI) as the inflation index, the pension from the past
20 years has devalued nearly 100 billion yuan;
and taking the average wage growth rate as a reference,
the loss is as high as 1.3 trillion yuan.
US-based Chinese social issue researcher Zhang Jian:
“The pension system is a disguised form of exploitation.
China’s pension system was developed in a hurry just to get
rid of the historical burden of massive numbers of workers
in state-owned enterprises.
But the system was developed by the CCP behind closed doors.
It did not follow any international conventions.”
Zhang Jian analyzes China’s pension has been hidden
with major risk.
The opaque, unfair and corrupt system has led to a big shortfall
in pension.
The pension has increased the burden on the tax payers
and further damaged the basic old-age insurance system.
Zhang Jian: “Everyone knows the pension is a black hole,
but no one knows how deep the water is
and how much money has been sucked dry.
There is no unified management of the pension
in the social funds.
The local governments have misappropriated the pension
into chaotic investment.
The hole is only growing by robbing Peter to pay Paul.”
Zhang Jian indicates that in this process many people
are left with the risk of no more pension funds.
According to China Pension Development Report published
by Economy and Management Publishing House,
the total amount of ‘empty accounts’ is more than 3 trillion yuan
in 2013, more than the total balance of basic pension fund.
Li Yang, economist of Institute of Finance and Banking, CASS,
had estimated last March that by 2023, over expenditure
will occur to the basic pension fund, the balance will be
exhausted by 2029, and a shortfall of 802 trillion yuan by 2050.
Faced with the shortfall of pension, the government keeps
tight restrictions on how pension funds can be invested,
with the country’s Ministry of Finance recently issuing
a statement warning local governments against investing
local pension funds in anything but the most conservative
assets, reported WSJ.
Given such restrictions and the fund’s overall poor track record,
Mr. Zheng said, the underinvested nature of the country’s
pension fund is a “time bomb” for local government finances,
added WSJ.
US-based economic commentator Ma Jiesen: “This is certainly
a time bomb, one of the many the CCP faces.
The CCP certainly did not have a long-term plan,
but took a passive attitude towards the matter.
Aren’t there many so-called naked officials,
who sent their families overseas, in China?!”
Ma Jiesen points out that the ruling party is the fundamental
problem in China, for its unlimited power and greed,
as well as its deception and exploitation out of self-interest.
Facing a rapidly aging population and declining numbers
of working-age people, government officials have strongly
hinted that they may raise the retirement age, reported WSJ.
In 2013, China’s Tsinghua University proposed raising
the pension age to 65 as of 2030 for both men and women,
up from the current 60 for men and 50 for women.
Interview/Zhu Zisan Edit/Li Yun Post-Production/Xiao Yan