【禁聞】中國面臨養老金〝定時炸彈〞
中國養老金體系面臨嚴重資金不足的前景。大陸媒體最新數據顯示，與工資增長相比，躺在銀行賬戶〝睡大覺〞的養老金，20年損失1.3萬億元。研究人員把中國養老金問題稱作是中國面臨的一顆〝定時炸彈〞。
大陸三年前曾掀起一場關於養老金投資體制改革的〝全民討論〞，但投資方案至今還沒有出台。中共人力資源和社會保障部最新數據顯示，截至去年底，中國社會保險基金累計資產總額已達4.77萬億元，占當年GDP高達8.3% 。
但是絕大部分基金作為財政專戶存款躺在銀行里〝睡大覺〞，購買國債和委託投資的合計僅為711億元，還不到資產總額的零頭。
中國社科院世界社會保障中心主任鄭秉文分析，如果政府更好地管理這類資金，過去20年中國的養老金就會多增加數十億元。
鄭秉文測算養老保險在過去20年來的損失量，如果以通脹率(CPI)作為基準，貶值將近千億元；如果以社會平均工資增長率作為參照，福利損失將高達1.3萬億元。
旅美中國社會問題研究人士張健：〝養老金的制度就是一個變相的盤剝，因為中國當時制定養老金制度的時候，它只是要急於甩開眾多國企這些職工的歷史負擔，它覺得把這些包袱甩掉之後，它先推出個養老金制度，但它在養老金制度它並沒有參照國際上的這樣一個標準，是中共自己閉門造出來的。〞
旅美中國社會問題研究人士張健分析，這套制度一出台就存在著重大的隱患，由於不透明，不公正和官員貪腐，導致養老金的缺口巨大，不僅加重了納稅人的負擔，更侵蝕了未來基本養老保險制度的支付能力。
張健：〝每個人都知道養老金是一個黑洞，但是這裏面的水到底有多深，它吸幹了多少納稅人的工資，現在根本不得而知，在社會統籌帳戶裡邊，對養老金這筆錢沒有一個統一的管理。各個省市的財政大量挪用養老金的行為，導致亂投資，導致養老金的窟窿越來越大，然後靠拆東牆被西牆的方式 ，把養老金帳讓它先持平。〞
張健說，在這個過程中，養老金已經產生了很大的問題，導致已經在社保體系存入資金的眾多民眾，面臨無法領取退休金的風險。
根據〝經濟管理出版社〞2011-2014 年出版的《中國養老金髮展報告》，去年年底，大陸個人養老金賬戶〝空賬〞高達30955億元，超過了當年城鎮職工養老保險基金的累計結餘。根據中國社科院金融所教授李揚去年3月的測算，到2023年，城鎮企業職工基本養老保險就將出現〝收不抵支〞，2029年累計結餘將消耗殆盡，2050年累計缺口將達802萬億元。
面對中國養老金的巨大缺口 ，中共當局開始嚴格限制社保基金的投資方向。中國財政部最近發布聲明，對地方政府提出告誡，指出除了最保守的資產，地方社保基金不能投資其他任何產品。
由於當局的限制，以及巨大的基本養老金的潛在損失，鄭秉文說，中國社保基金投資不足的本質，對地方政府來說就像一顆〝定時炸彈〞。
旅美經濟評論家馬傑森：〝這個肯定是中共面臨的定時炸彈之一。中共面臨的定時炸彈非常多，這是其中之一，當然中共肯定也沒有一個長遠性計劃，可能也都是屬於那種做一天和尚，撞一天鍾的狀態。很多官員不也都是裸官嘛，把家人都送到國外去了嗎？！〞
馬傑森指出，中國很多問題歸根結底都是目前這個執政黨的問題，因為它本身有著無限的權力，無限的貪慾，它不管制定什麼，都是從利己出發，變相欺騙、盤剝老百姓。
中國正面臨人口老齡化的前景，政府官員已經強烈暗示可能會提高退休年齡。另一方面，去年一份由清華大學制定的〝中國養老體制改革備選方案〞提出，從明年開始逐步延遲領取養老金，到2030年，實現普通職工和居民65歲領取養老金。
採訪/朱智善 編輯/李韻 后制/肖顏
Research Says China』s National Pension Is A Time Bomb
China’s pension system is faced with a major shortfall.
Mainland media reports that national pension funds
are sleeping at banks as deposits
and have lost 1.3 trillion yuan in the past 20 years.
A researcher regards China』s pension funds
a 『time bomb』 for local governments.
Since a national debate on pension investment three years ago,
no investment program has yet been introduced.
The latest Human Resources and Social Security Ministry data
showed that as of last year, the total social insurance fund
has reached 4.77 trillion yuan,
accounting for as much as 8.3% of GDP.
But the vast majority of funds 『sleep』 in the bank as deposits.
Only 71.1 billion, or 1.5% of the funds has been put
into national bonds or investment.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Zheng Bingwen
analyzed, if the government had managed such funds better,
it could have made billions more over the past two decades.
Zheng Bingwen』s research showed, taking the Consumer Price
Index (CPI) as the inflation index, the pension from the past
20 years has devalued nearly 100 billion yuan;
and taking the average wage growth rate as a reference,
the loss is as high as 1.3 trillion yuan.
US-based Chinese social issue researcher Zhang Jian:
「The pension system is a disguised form of exploitation.
China’s pension system was developed in a hurry just to get
rid of the historical burden of massive numbers of workers
in state-owned enterprises.
But the system was developed by the CCP behind closed doors.
It did not follow any international conventions.」
Zhang Jian analyzes China』s pension has been hidden
with major risk.
The opaque, unfair and corrupt system has led to a big shortfall
in pension.
The pension has increased the burden on the tax payers
and further damaged the basic old-age insurance system.
Zhang Jian: 「Everyone knows the pension is a black hole,
but no one knows how deep the water is
and how much money has been sucked dry.
There is no unified management of the pension
in the social funds.
The local governments have misappropriated the pension
into chaotic investment.
The hole is only growing by robbing Peter to pay Paul.」
Zhang Jian indicates that in this process many people
are left with the risk of no more pension funds.
According to China Pension Development Report published
by Economy and Management Publishing House,
the total amount of 『empty accounts』 is more than 3 trillion yuan
in 2013, more than the total balance of basic pension fund.
Li Yang, economist of Institute of Finance and Banking, CASS,
had estimated last March that by 2023, over expenditure
will occur to the basic pension fund, the balance will be
exhausted by 2029, and a shortfall of 802 trillion yuan by 2050.
Faced with the shortfall of pension, the government keeps
tight restrictions on how pension funds can be invested,
with the country』s Ministry of Finance recently issuing
a statement warning local governments against investing
local pension funds in anything but the most conservative
assets, reported WSJ.
Given such restrictions and the fund』s overall poor track record,
Mr. Zheng said, the underinvested nature of the country』s
pension fund is a 「time bomb」 for local government finances,
added WSJ.
US-based economic commentator Ma Jiesen: 「This is certainly
a time bomb, one of the many the CCP faces.
The CCP certainly did not have a long-term plan,
but took a passive attitude towards the matter.
Aren』t there many so-called naked officials,
who sent their families overseas, in China?!」
Ma Jiesen points out that the ruling party is the fundamental
problem in China, for its unlimited power and greed,
as well as its deception and exploitation out of self-interest.
Facing a rapidly aging population and declining numbers
of working-age people, government officials have strongly
hinted that they may raise the retirement age, reported WSJ.
In 2013, China’s Tsinghua University proposed raising
the pension age to 65 as of 2030 for both men and women,
up from the current 60 for men and 50 for women.
Interview/Zhu Zisan Edit/Li Yun Post-Production/Xiao Yan